Much of President Trump’s campaign rhetoric in 2016 was generally considered to be hostile to Hispanics. As a result he won only 19 percent of Hispanic votes in 2016 according to a poll by Latino Decisions.
The tone of the President’s rhetoric about Hispanics hasn’t changed over his years in office, which makes it interesting to look forward to next year’s election. A new poll released last week shows that all top Democratic candidates for the 2020 election are more than 40 percentage points ahead of President Trump with Hispanic respondents nationwide. A survey conducted by Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion Research shows that 73 percent of Hispanic respondents plan to vote for a Democratic candidate while only 16 percent plan to vote for Trump. If accurate, these results represent a three point decline in support for Trump among Latin voters.
Historically, Democrats do better with Latin voters than Republicans. In the nine elections prior to 2016, Democrats averaged 64% of the Hispanic vote while Republicans averaged 31%. Should Trump get only 16% of that vote, the decline from average for Republicans would be 48%. Should Democrats capture 73% of the Hispanic vote, they’re increase against average would be 14%. Who are the Hispanic Republicans? In general, a majority of them come from class of anti-communist Cubans that were refugees from Castro’s revolution. They have been concentrated in Florida. Today, they are older, their offspring aren’t as connected to the past and this younger generation has moved toward the Democrats. The combination of changing demographics in the Latin community and the President’s rhetoric explain the changing voting landscape.